The African Development Bank (AfDB) has issued a warning that an increase in commodity and fuel prices may lead to social unrest, particularly in response to government policies such as subsidy removal.
The bank’s macroeconomic performance and outlook for 2024 highlighted potential challenges for the continent, projecting higher economic growth than the 3.2% recorded in 2023.
The report emphasized the vulnerability of Africa to global supply chain disruptions, citing geo-political tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle-East, coupled with the El Nino phenomenon.
It said the disruptions could exacerbate energy and food inflation, with potential consequences for social stability.
The AfDB cautioned that regional conflicts and political instability, triggered by disruptions in constitutional governments, could divert resources from development and social support to security and defence.
The report also underscored the negative economic implications of unconstitutional take-over of governments, leading to sanctions.
“Internal conflicts and violence could also result from rising prices for fuel and other commodities due to weaker domestic currencies and reforms.
“For instance, the removal of fuel subsidies in Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria and the resulting social costs have led to social unrest”, it stated.
