By Ademola Adekusibe
The surname Khan is projected to overtake Smith as the most common surname given to newborns in England and Wales by 2027, according to an analysis of official birth registration data. The forecast highlights significant changes in the surnames recorded for babies over the past three decades.
Figures from the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that Smith remained the most frequently registered surname among newborns in 2025, with 4,102 registrations. Khan ranked second with 3,772. However, the gap between the two names is narrowing, with the analysis pointing to a decline in Smith registrations and a steady increase in Khan registrations.
Smith has traditionally dominated newborn surname rankings in England and Wales. In 1996, the name was recorded for 7,276 babies, compared with 4,102 in 2025, representing a substantial fall over the period. Khan, Ahmed and Ali, meanwhile, have each roughly doubled in frequency among newborns since 1996.
The latest rankings also show that several surnames associated with South Asian communities have entered the top 10. Khan ranks second, followed by Ahmed in third place and Ali in fourth. Hussain ranks sixth, while Singh, Williams, Patel and Kaur also feature in the list. Jones, which was among the leading surnames in 1996, has fallen by about 43 per cent, while Williams has experienced a similar decline.
The figures point to a broader diversification of surnames among newborns. More than 23,400 different surnames were recorded in 2025, compared with approximately 21,600 in 1996. Over the same period, the number of surnames registered for at least 1,000 babies fell from 57 to 23, suggesting that newborns’ surnames are becoming less concentrated among a small group of names.
The changes have prompted debate about immigration, cultural identity and demographic change in Britain. Some commentators view the shift as evidence of changing national demographics, while others see the growing variety of surnames as a reflection of a society shaped by migration and established communities with diverse family histories.
However, surname statistics alone cannot establish a child’s ethnicity, religion, nationality or place of birth. The data records names appearing on birth registrations and should not be interpreted as a direct measure of immigration or religious affiliation.
The projected change applies specifically to newborns in England and Wales, not to the entire population. Smith remains one of the most common surnames across the wider population, and Khan’s projected rise in newborn registrations does not mean it will immediately replace Smith among people of all ages.
The development comes amid other changes in baby-naming trends. Separate ONS figures show that Muhammad was the most popular boys’ first name in England and Wales for the third consecutive year in 2025, with 5,957 registrations using that exact spelling. Olivia retained the top position among girls for the fourth consecutive year.
The dataset covers births registered between 1996 and 2025. While the figures establish a shift in the surnames being registered for newborns, the prediction that Khan will overtake Smith by 2027 remains a projection based on recent trends rather than a confirmed outcome.