By Bolarinwa Ayoola
“In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity.” — Sun Tzu
Since the outbreak of the Russia Ukraine war in February 2022, the international arena has continued to experience significant shifts in geopolitics, trade, energy security, and international relations. The war has had far reaching consequences across several sectors, including maritime transportation, global trade, energy production and supply, security, and international supply chains. It has placed enormous pressure on national economies while disrupting the movement and availability of energy, raw materials, agricultural produce, and other essential commodities.
About seven months ago, the United States, in a joint operation with Israel, launched an attack on Iran in what Washington described as Operation Epic Fury, with stated objectives that included countering Iran’s activities, facilitating regime change, and disrupting the nuclear ambitions of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In response, Iran launched several attacks against its Gulf neighbours, targeting United States military bases, military infrastructure, and other known US interests in the region.
In a strategic move, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, through which approximately twenty percent of global energy supplies pass. The consequences were immediate and severe for major economies around the world. Crude oil prices surged, pushing up energy costs globally and affecting the prices of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), diesel, and other petroleum products in Nigeria.
Beyond the rising cost of energy resulting from these conflicts, international trade and global supply chains have also come under enormous pressure. The movement of finished goods, food, raw materials, fertiliser, industrial inputs, and other essential commodities has become increasingly difficult and expensive. This has placed many countries, particularly African states that depend heavily on imports, in vulnerable positions and increased the risk of food shortages and economic instability.
The situation is grim. Countries are struggling under the weight of rising energy costs, inflation, supply disruptions, and growing domestic pressures. Across many states, citizens are increasingly questioning the hardship being imposed on them by circumstances largely beyond their immediate control. Nigeria is not exempt from these challenges, and the government continues to search for ways to respond to the economic consequences of the changing global environment.
However, while nations continue to struggle with the consequences of the wars in Europe and the Middle East, there are opportunities embedded within these crises that Nigeria can potentially harness. Yorubaland, in particular, can position itself as a destination and beneficiary of some of these emerging opportunities.
The question, therefore, is not simply whether opportunities exist. The more important question is whether Yorubaland is adequately positioned to identify, attract, and benefit from them. Yorubaland must not only share in the pains created by these global conflicts. It must also be strategically positioned to capture some of the economic opportunities that the changing global order presents.
Several manufacturing companies across Western Europe have been severely affected by the consequences of the ongoing conflict, particularly rising energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical insecurity. Many Western European economies, including Germany, had for decades benefited from relatively cheap and dependable Russian energy supplies. The war and the sanctions that followed dramatically altered this arrangement.
The disruption of Russian energy supplies has forced European countries to seek alternative sources, many of which are more expensive. Consequently, households and businesses across the region have faced significantly higher energy costs, placing additional pressure on manufacturing and other energy intensive industries.
More recently, Russia has strengthened its energy relationship with China, redirecting a significant portion of its gas infrastructure and energy supplies towards the Chinese market. This represents a major shift in the traditional European energy equation and could continue to influence the continent’s energy security long after the current conflict ends.
The conflict involving Iran has further complicated the global energy market. The Middle East has historically served as one of the most important sources of oil and gas for the global economy, helping to cushion some of the energy disruptions arising from the Russia Ukraine conflict. Any further disruption to the region therefore has the potential to place additional pressure on global energy supplies and industrial production.
The continuing geopolitical tensions also create uncertainty for businesses operating in Western Europe. Should the conflict expand and NATO’s direct involvement increase, the resulting geopolitical and economic consequences could further affect citizens, corporations, manufacturers, and investors across the region.
Already, several companies in major Western European economies are experiencing serious difficulties. While some continue to maintain their operations, others have reduced production, suspended activities, closed facilities, or begun considering relocation to regions where operating costs are lower and the business environment offers greater stability.
This is precisely where Yorubaland needs to begin looking beyond the immediate hardship narrative and towards the strategic opportunities emerging from the changing global economic environment. Yorubaland possesses several characteristics that could make it attractive to companies seeking alternative locations for manufacturing and industrial operations.
The region has extensive land resources, a significant concentration of human capital, access to mineral and agricultural resources, a large labour force, and a population with a long history of commercial and industrial activity. Its geographical position along the Atlantic corridor also provides an important advantage for international trade.
The region’s proximity to major seaports, particularly the Lagos port complex, provides access to international shipping routes and markets. At the same time, Nigeria’s large domestic market offers companies an opportunity to establish production bases that can serve not only the Nigerian market but also the wider African market. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) further strengthens this possibility by creating a framework for increased intra African trade and access to a continental market of more than one billion people.
With the right policies, infrastructure, security arrangements, investment incentives, industrial parks, efficient transportation networks, reliable energy systems, and simplified regulatory processes, Yorubaland could position itself as a serious destination for companies looking to diversify or relocate their manufacturing operations.
This opportunity should not be understood merely as an attempt to attract foreign companies. It should also be seen as an opportunity to develop indigenous industries, strengthen local supply chains, promote technology transfer, expand skills development, and create an industrial ecosystem capable of supporting long term economic growth.
At this moment, it is important for policymakers, state governors, traditional institutions, business leaders, and other stakeholders across Yorubaland to recognize that global crises can also produce structural changes in the international economy.
The relocation of even a fraction of European manufacturing capacity could create thousands of direct and indirect jobs. It could stimulate demand for local raw materials, expand transportation and logistics services, increase housing and commercial activity, strengthen local supply chains, and broaden the tax base of governments.
More importantly, attracting such investments could help move Yorubaland beyond an economy largely driven by the consumption of imported goods towards one increasingly characterized by production, manufacturing, processing, exports, and industrial innovation. But such opportunities will not come automatically.
Companies leaving Europe will not simply relocate because Yorubaland is available. They will go where the conditions necessary for profitable and sustainable operations exist. That means the region must deliberately create the environment that investors require.
This requires reliable electricity, functional transportation infrastructure, efficient ports, industrial land, security, skilled labour, predictable taxation, simplified regulations, access to finance, digital connectivity, and a government that understands the needs of modern industry. The governors and policymakers of Yorubaland therefore need to begin asking a different set of questions.
How can we identify industries in Europe that are under pressure from energy costs and geopolitical instability?
Which of these industries can realistically operate in Nigeria?
What resources and infrastructure would they require?
Which locations across Yorubaland can accommodate them?
What incentives can state governments provide?
How can local businesses be integrated into their supply chains?
How can the region ensure that technology and skills are transferred to local workers?
And, most importantly, how can Yorubaland compete with other regions of Africa and the world for these investments? These are the strategic questions that should accompany the hardship rhetoric.
The ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East may be producing suffering, uncertainty, and economic disruption across the world. But they are also accelerating changes in energy markets, manufacturing locations, supply chains, investment patterns, and global trade. Yorubaland cannot control these wars. It cannot determine their outcome. But it can determine how prepared it is to respond to the economic changes they create.
The world is changing, industries are looking for new locations, supply chains are being redesigned and capital is searching for stability. The question is whether Yorubaland is prepared to fight for its share of the opportunity.