October 01, 2025
By Adejumo David Adebayo
Armed groups operating across the Sahel are opening a new frontier in Nigeria, using Niger and Kwara States as launchpads to push into Yorùbáland, analysts and security sources have warned.
For decades, bandit militias, largely made up of Fulani gangs, have terrorised rural communities in the North West, killing and kidnapping thousands. Originally herders, the groups evolved into armed militias who imposed levies on farmers, destroyed villages that resisted, and traded hostages for ransom.
Security experts say years of ransom payments in the North West have created what they call a “ransom economy.” With cash pools drying up due to economic hardship, militias are now looking south to wealthier communities.
Why Kwara, Not Èkìtì
Initial incursions into Èkìtì State, including the ambush of traditional rulers, were blunted by quick security responses and difficult hilly terrain. By contrast, Kwara and Kogi West, with their savannah plains and easier logistics, mirror the North West terrain where bandits are most effective.
“The Kwara-Kogi corridor provides a seamless route for movement of fighters, motorcycles, and supplies,” a security analyst told this reporter. “They are connecting with Niger State militias to establish a continuous frontline.”
Military Stretched Thin
The Nigerian military, already deployed heavily against Boko Haram in the North East and banditry in the North West, risks overstretch. Bandits operate in decentralised cells, making them harder to dislodge.
Unlike in the North West where negotiations and truces have been attempted, analysts warn the response in Kwara and Yorùbáland is likely to be more forceful, raising the risk of bloodier clashes.
Historical Parallels
Observers have compared the current movement to the 19th century, when the Fulani jihad in Ilorin opened a southern front that altered Yorùbáland’s political landscape. Today, a similar southward push threatens social and economic disruption across Kwara, Kogi, and neighbouring states.
The Way Forward
Security experts are calling for:
• Emergency joint security operations in Kwara and Kogi.
• Deployment of surveillance drones along key borders.
• Arming of local vigilantes and community defence groups.
• Urgent progress on state policing.
Without decisive action, they warn, the new frontline could entrench itself in Yorùbáland, turning Kwara into the latest hotspot of Nigeria’s widening insecurity.
