March 28, 2025
By Ayinde Adeleke
A recent intelligence report by SBM Intelligence warns that criminal herders are shifting their focus to Southern Nigeria, creating a national dimension for the pastoral crisis.
The report, titled “A National Emergency: The Escalating Crisis of Pastoral Violence in Nigeria,” reveals a troubling picture of relentless expansion.
Between 2019 and 2025, the North-Central zone remained the most severely affected region, with Benue State enduring over 200 documented attacks.
Neighboring Plateau State followed closely with 150 incidents, and their shared border has transformed into a deadly conflict zone.
“The geographical pattern of pastoral violence in Nigeria paints a troubling picture of relentless expansion,” the report states.
“The violence spread outward along predictable pathways. Kaduna in the Northwest recorded concerning numbers of attacks, while Adamawa in the Northeast displayed increasing vulnerability.”
More alarmingly, the conflict shows signs of spreading southwards, with sporadic but intensifying outbreaks in Enugu and Oyo.
This geographical progression reveals a disturbing trend: what began as localized clashes in the Middle Belt has evolved into a nationwide security emergency.
“The concentration of violence along the Benue-Plateau-Kaduna axis suggests these states have borne the brunt of a systematic campaign of territorial displacement, while incidents in southern regions indicate the conflict’s dangerous expansion into new areas,” the report notes.
The data underscores how environmental pressures and weak governance have transformed traditional grazing disputes into a complex security challenge affecting nearly all of Nigeria’s geopolitical zones.
To address this crisis, the report recommends a multi-faceted approach, including comprehensive land reforms, security sector reforms, and climate adaptation programs.
“Without coordinated and sustained efforts, Nigeria’s pastoral conflict will continue to threaten lives, economic stability, and national security.”
