By Ademola Adekusibe

Peter Obi wants to rescue Nigeria, but one question refuses to go away: How can a politician who has struggled to remain in one political party convince Nigerians that he possesses the consistency, loyalty and political discipline required to govern an entire country?

Five political parties. Multiple defections. Another presidential ambition. And once again, Nigerians are being asked to believe that this latest political arrangement is the vehicle that will deliver the country from its challenges. This is not merely a question of party membership. It is a question of political character, institutional commitment and leadership credibility.

Obi’s political history is becoming increasingly difficult to separate from his presidential ambition. He began his political journey with the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), moved to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2014, abandoned the PDP for the Labour Party in 2022, subsequently joined the African Democratic Congress (ADC) on March 7, 2026, and left barely eight weeks later to join the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) on May 3. His latest political destination is therefore not an isolated development. It is another chapter in a recurring pattern.

Even more remarkable is the political journey of his running mate, Rabiu Kwankwaso. He left the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) on March 29, joined the ADC on March 30 and subsequently moved to the NDC in May. Two presidential hopefuls, multiple political departures and another attempt to convince Nigerians that they have finally found the right platform. What exactly should Nigerians make of this political musical chairs?

A POLITICIAN CANNOT KEEP ABANDONING SHIPS AND EXPECT NIGERIANS TO TRUST HIM WITH THE COUNTRY

The presidency is not a temporary political arrangement that can be discarded whenever personal interests, disagreements or political calculations change. Leadership demands consistency. It demands the ability to build relationships, resolve disagreements, accommodate opposing interests and sustain institutions beyond personal ambitions. A politician who repeatedly changes political platforms must expect questions about his commitment to the institutions he claims to represent.

The APC has not missed the opportunity to make this point. Its National Publicity Secretary, Felix Morka, has questioned Obi’s willingness to build and sustain a political party, citing his repeated movements across different platforms. And the question is legitimate. If Obi cannot establish a lasting political relationship with the parties through which he pursues his ambitions, what assurances can he offer that his proposed national coalition will remain intact when the difficult business of governing begins?

Nigeria is not a political laboratory. Its presidency is not an office for testing whether another political arrangement will survive internal disagreements. Governing a country of more than 200 million people requires political discipline, institutional strength and the ability to manage competing interests. These are not qualities that can be established through campaign slogans or personal popularity.

THE ‘RESCUE NIGERIA’ SLOGAN CANNOT HIDE POLITICAL INCONSISTENCY

Obi has reportedly justified his latest departure by invoking the urgent need to rescue Nigeria. It is a familiar political message, carefully packaged to appeal to citizens frustrated by economic hardship, insecurity and the rising cost of living. But national rescue requires more than dramatic declarations. It requires a credible political structure, a coherent governing philosophy and the capacity to translate promises into measurable results.

Nigerians must not be carried away by the emotional appeal of a political slogan without examining the people making the promise. Where is the consistency? Where is the institutional commitment? Where is the evidence that this latest arrangement will be different from the previous ones? It is not enough to repeatedly announce a new political destination and describe each departure as another step towards rescuing Nigeria.

At some point, Obi must explain why the political platforms he previously embraced could not accommodate his ambitions and why Nigerians should believe that the NDC will be any different. A presidential candidate must be prepared to answer difficult questions about his political record, not simply demand public trust because he presents himself as an alternative to the incumbent administration.

TINUBU’S REFORMS: THE NUMBERS OBI’S SUPPORTERS CANNOT WISH AWAY

While the opposition concentrates on presenting itself as an alternative to the Tinubu administration, supporters of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu have something more substantial to put before Nigerians: economic indicators that offer a basis for assessing the government’s performance.

The Tinubu administration inherited an economy burdened by structural distortions, subsidy-related expenditure and foreign exchange challenges. Its decision to remove the petrol subsidy and unify the exchange rate attracted enormous criticism and imposed considerable hardship on Nigerians. However, the argument of the administration’s supporters is that difficult reforms cannot be evaluated exclusively through their immediate consequences while ignoring their longer-term objectives.

Nigeria’s GDP grew by 4.43 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 3.89 per cent in the first quarter and 3.13 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025, according to figures attributed to the National Bureau of Statistics and cited by FactCheckHub. Headline inflation declined to 15.39 per cent in August 2026, compared with 23.14 per cent a year earlier. Although inflation had reached 34.8 per cent in December 2024, the subsequent decline provides another indicator that supporters of the administration consider significant.

Foreign reserves reportedly increased to approximately $49.8 billion in March 2026, compared with $32.8 billion at the end of 2023. The naira, which traded above N1,500 to the dollar in March 2024, was reported at approximately N1,363 in April 2026. Meanwhile, non-oil exports reportedly reached a record $6.1 billion in 2025, representing an 11.5 per cent increase, while crude oil losses declined significantly from their 2021 levels.

FactCheckHub also rated the President’s four Independence Day economic claims true, although it provided qualifications concerning their context. These figures do not mean that Nigerians have suddenly become comfortable or that economic difficulties have disappeared. They do, however, provide measurable indicators that supporters of the administration can use to defend the direction of its economic policies.

The removal of the fuel subsidy and the unification of the foreign exchange market were difficult decisions with immediate consequences for ordinary Nigerians. The administration’s argument is that these reforms were necessary to address longstanding structural weaknesses and establish a more sustainable economic foundation. Its supporters therefore believe that abandoning the reform process before its full effects become clear could introduce another period of economic uncertainty.

OBI’S POPULARITY IS NOT A SUBSTITUTE FOR GOVERNING EXPERIENCE

One of the greatest weaknesses in contemporary Nigerian political discourse is the tendency to confuse popularity with governing competence. Obi has established a formidable support base, particularly among younger Nigerians, and his political appeal cannot simply be dismissed. However, winning public admiration and successfully managing a country are two entirely different responsibilities.

The presidency requires more than the ability to mobilise supporters and articulate public frustrations. It requires the capacity to manage national security, negotiate political interests, sustain economic policies, work with the legislature and maintain institutional stability. A president must also understand that governing involves difficult compromises and decisions that may not always generate immediate applause.

Tinubu’s supporters argue that his extensive political experience, institutional relationships and ability to manage competing political interests give him an advantage at a time when Nigeria needs continuity in its reform programme. Whether voters agree with that assessment is another matter, but it is an argument that deserves consideration in the coming election.

THE OTHER SIDE HAS ARGUMENTS, BUT THE QUESTIONS REMAIN

For the sake of a balanced political assessment, the Tinubu administration cannot escape criticism. Opposition figures argue that improving economic indicators have not translated into sufficient relief for ordinary Nigerians. They point to persistent food prices, insecurity, unemployment and the broader cost-of-living crisis as evidence that the country’s economic recovery remains uneven.

There are also legitimate concerns about rising public debt and debt-servicing obligations. Figures cited by Nairametrics indicate that public debt increased from N87.91 trillion to N159.28 trillion between 2023 and 2025, while debt servicing rose from N1.24 trillion to N4.86 trillion. Furthermore, the decline in headline inflation must be understood in the context of statistical rebasing. A lower inflation rate does not mean that prices have returned to previous levels; it means that the rate at which prices are increasing has slowed.

Obi’s supporters also argue that political defections are a normal feature of Nigerian democracy and that his movements between parties reflect disagreements over political direction and internal party arrangements. They are entitled to make that argument. The APC itself has experienced defections and internal political disagreements, and it would be dishonest to pretend otherwise.

However, the existence of defections across the political landscape does not eliminate the responsibility to question the consistency and institutional commitment of any presidential candidate. Political freedom gives politicians the right to change parties, but it does not exempt them from public scrutiny over the frequency, circumstances and implications of those decisions.

NIGERIA CANNOT AFFORD ANOTHER POLITICAL EXPERIMENT

Ultimately, the 2027 presidential contest must be about more than political popularity, emotional appeals and promises of national redemption. Nigerians must examine the records of the candidates, the credibility of their political structures, the sustainability of their economic proposals and their ability to manage the country’s complicated political realities.

Tinubu’s supporters believe that the administration deserves the opportunity to consolidate its reforms and demonstrate their long-term benefits. They point to improving economic indicators as evidence that the country is moving in a direction that should not be abandoned prematurely. Obi and Kwankwaso, on the other hand, must demonstrate that their latest political arrangement is more than another temporary destination in an already lengthy journey between political parties.

Five political parties, multiple departures and another promise of national rescue raise a fundamental question about political consistency. Nigeria needs more than politicians who can successfully mobilise public frustration. It needs leaders capable of building institutions, sustaining political alliances and taking responsibility for difficult decisions.

The country cannot afford to confuse political popularity with governing competence, just as it cannot afford to ignore the genuine frustrations of its citizens. The ultimate decision belongs to Nigerians, but before making it, voters must ask themselves a simple question: Is the country better served by continuing a difficult reform process with measurable outcomes, or by placing its future in the hands of a political ticket still searching for a permanent political home?